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## historical trend

## Background information

On October 29, 2015, at 8:30 AM (Eastern), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release its advance estimate of 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Product. This question asks you to predict the analogous SAAR of growth in **nominal **GDP. This value will be found in cell F283 of the spreadsheet hosted on the BEA website at URL http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls, once it is updated on October 29. It can also be computed from Line 1 of Table 1.1.5 of the NIPA tables at http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&903=5, via the formula (1 + r)^4, where r = (GDP2015Q3 – GDP2015Q2) / GDP2015Q2, with the (seasonally adjusted) GDP values for Q3 and Q2 extracted from the table.

Note that rates of change reflect seasonally adjusted GDP, and are annualized (roughly four times the corresponding quarterly rates of change, but more precisely the annualization process turns a quarterly rate of change r into an annual rate of change (1 + r)^4 - 1). "SAAR" is an abbreviation for a seasonally adjusted annualized rate.

The difference between real and nominal GDP growth is reflected in the Implicit Price Deflator for gross domestic product, a measure of inflation that is distinct from more commonly reported quantities such as the monthly increase in CPI (consumer price index), or the quarterly increase in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE deflator). The evolution of the GDP deflator can be seen at https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/A191RI1Q225SBEA.

We will round the growth rate to the nearest 0.1%, and then resolve in the appropriate bins. Note that the bins are inclusive of the lower endpoints and exclusive of the upper endpoints. For example, if the (SAAR) NGDP growth rate is 1.96%, this question will resolve in the "At least 2% but less than 2.5%" bin.

Note that the growth rates will reflect the **most recent **estimate for Q2 GDP, versus the **advance estimate** for Q3 GDP.

## Discussion

## sflicht • Tue Aug 25 2015 at 02:50pm PDT

See https://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/65499 for the corresponding question about real GDP.