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Which Republican 2016 candidates will finish in the top 3 positions in the New Hamshire Republican Presidential primary Tuesday 9 February 2016?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Bush

(closed)

56.07%

Carson

(closed)

24.31%

Cruz

(closed)

14.73%

Fiorina

(closed)

21.29%

Kasich.

(closed)

40.42%

Other Candidate(s)

(closed)

24.90%

Trump

(closed)

82.64%

Walker

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

  • expired

Question ends

January 31, 2016 @ 09:59pm PST

Predictions Made

95

Most by: catrachohansen (17 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 09:29am PST

This question has been suspended. An corresponding question can be found on AlphaCast at: http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com/questions/430

catrachohansen   •   Thu Oct 08 2015 at 02:31pm PDT

Also, remember that Other Candidate includes Rubio, Huckabee, Christie, and several others and seems very undervalued.

catrachohansen   •   Thu Oct 08 2015 at 02:29pm PDT

Wow, these currently add up to like 330% and at most 3 of the options will pay out. These candidates are collectively overvalued by 30 percentage points.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Oct 09 2015 at 07:06pm PDT

The answers to my market is multiple choice with muliple correct answers. The total percentage points DO NOT HAVE TO ADD up to 100%. I opted to start each option @ 50% to allow the Inkling players to fluctuate the options up or down as desired. As to other candidates not being listed,I felt as the originator to leave off some candidates which I felt would not end up in the top three spots. BUT the “OTHER CANDIDATES” option provides a means to cover non-listed candiates to be credited in this market.

catrachohansen   •   Fri Oct 09 2015 at 07:24pm PDT

But they will add up to 300% or less in the end (though that is not automatic here) because at most three of the options will pay out.
I’m totally on board with having an other candidates option. I’m just saying that it is currently severely undervalued in my opinion and the other options are collectively overvalued.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Oct 09 2015 at 07:56pm PDT

Thanks for comment. I was just trying to clarify how and why I wrote the market the way I did. Have a good evening.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Sep 21 2015 at 03:50pm PDT

Walker suspended his Presidential bid effective 17:10 CDST 9-21-2015.

Rationales

"Looks like the New Hamshire voters r looking outside the political box for a candidate."

SneakyPete bought Carson at 33.63%
October 11, 2015 @ 01:13pm PDT

"Bush is on a slow fade. His message is not catching on. "

GeneH sold Bush at 82.70%
October 03, 2015 @ 01:58pm PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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