Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Which candidate will win the Republican primary Pennsylvania 9th Congressional district House seat Rep. Bill Shuster (R) or Art Halverson(Tea Party) on Tuesday 26 April 2016?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Art Halverson (Tea Party)

(closed)

48.65%

Other Candidate.

(closed)

31.33%

Rep. Bill Shuster (R)

(closed)

20.01%

  • expired

Question ends

April 22, 2016 @ 07:59am PDT

Predictions Made

23

Most by: catrachohansen (7 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:14am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

catrachohansen   •   Thu Sep 24 2015 at 08:09am PDT

Some additional background on the relationship with the airline lobbyist: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/bill-shuster-admits-personal-relationship-with-lobbyist-117054
As far as I can tell, Shuster plans to run again in 2016 and is not under any sort of ethics investigation. The relationship was not a secret, and both parties seem to have made efforts to remove conflicts of interest. It still doesn’t look great, but I have to think that Shuster has at least a 50% chance of winning.

catrachohansen   •   Fri Sep 11 2015 at 07:05am PDT

These starting probabilities are ludicrous. 1% for the incumbent?!

GeneH   •   Fri Sep 11 2015 at 01:36pm PDT

I have to think this was an input error by Sneaky Pete that was not caught. I have to think he meant for “other” to be 1%.

wstritt   •   Fri Sep 11 2015 at 03:49pm PDT

I would imagine Pete is assuming that the fact that Bill Shuster was having a “private and personal relationship” with an airline lobbyist will swamp his incumbency and let someone else in the door. Maybe, but who knows what the good people of PA-9 will decide.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Sep 11 2015 at 07:38pm PDT

You are correct. Did not believe that one he will continue running or secondly that the 9th districts voters will relect him.once again. We shallsee.

Rationales

"C'mon, are you serious that the incumbent, who already defeated Halverson once, only has a 1% chance in the primary?"

catrachohansen bought Rep. Bill Shuster (R) at 1.00%
September 11, 2015 @ 07:04am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader