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Will the United States government shut down on October 1, 2016?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

9.98%

  • expired

Question ends

September 28, 2016 @ 09:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

50

Most by: ChloeBurns (12 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

BeteNoire   •   Thu Oct 01 2015 at 06:44am PDT

20% probability! No way.

ChloeBurns   •   Fri Sep 25 2015 at 08:29am PDT

Boehner’s resignation is an unexpected twist. I expect it will allow a brief respite from the crazy and a three month CR followed by a real threat of government shutdown and even a credit downgrade in December. Still think the most likely outcome in December is a 12 month or longer CR that will last until after the 2016 election.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Sep 25 2015 at 11:43am PDT

Well said and I agree with your analysis.

ChloeBurns   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 04:40pm PDT

@kmcmorr: is this market really about one specific day more than a year from now or is 2016 a typo?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Thu Sep 24 2015 at 07:15am PDT

It’s truly not a typo.. honestly just curious about the possibility of a shutdown during an election year. As stated in another comment there are markets regarding this years’ shutdown. If you don’t agree with the timing of this market then please feel free to not participate ;) As for the comment regarding a budget resolution and the government’s authority to spend, it’s a great point and one which I would think would sway this market once the result of this years budget is known.

Also, I have made plenty of typos in the past.. they are easy to fix and even easier to own up to. At this moment I’m focused on the Pope speaking to Congress, pretty extraordinary isn’t it?

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Sep 24 2015 at 07:29am PDT

Thank you for clarifying.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 04:59pm PDT

he says at the bottom “next year”.

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Sep 24 2015 at 06:50am PDT

He (or she) also incorrectly states that the government is scheduled to shut down 10/1/16. Without the current budget resolution, it is impossible to know when the government’s authority to spend will run out next. The last continuing resolution covered two years. It is difficult to underestimate the intelligence of this Congress, but I think it likely this resolution will be crafted to last through the next election.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 02:55pm PDT

Chloe, I miss our debates. What’s your analysis on this probability? Given that the government seldom shuts down and this is more than a year away, how can the probability be nearly 37% that it will be shut down on that date?

ChloeBurns   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 04:44pm PDT

My analysis is that it is almost certain the market maker intended this market to be 2015 rather than 2016. Re: 2016, the federal government simply will not shut down one month before elections or every single Congressman would lose his job. It is absurd to think that this Congress, however dysfunctional, would do that.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 05:01pm PDT

Hmmm, we agree, but I must confess your analysis is more detailed than mine. Though i disagree that every congress person would lose their job.

GeneH   •   Tue Sep 22 2015 at 06:45am PDT

I have to be honest and confess: I have bet on this question and have looked at it MANY TIMES, but today is the first time I noticed it is for October 1, “2016” (next year) and not “2015” (next week!).

I wonder if others have over-looked this too…

mvguy   •   Sat Oct 03 2015 at 12:45pm PDT

This explains why the market it still open.

GeneH   •   Sat Oct 03 2015 at 12:52pm PDT

Yes. Obvious now but not necessarily 2 weeks ago when I made the posting. Thanks.

SneakyPete   •   Wed Sep 09 2015 at 08:31am PDT

To prevent a “Full” or “Partial” government shut down, I feel Congresss will pass a “Continuing Resolution” to delay a budget decision further down the road for now.

catrachohansen   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 07:43pm PDT

Note that the way that the question is phrased only allows a payout if there is a government shutdown ON October 1st. If the Treasury is able to find the money to keep the government running for a few days or weeks past Oct. 1, this question should be a “No,” even if there is no continuing resolution.

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 08:03pm PDT

Yes this is true. If this is the case a new market will be created.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Sep 09 2015 at 07:20am PDT

A few questions: 1) What constitutes a “shutdown”, the whole government, just a part?, and 2) Does the “shutdown” need to commence on October 1st 2016? What if it shuts down before October 1st and remains shut down on October 1st? Does that qualify as the government shutting down on October 1st. What’s special about October 1st of next year?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed Sep 09 2015 at 07:37am PDT

Good points.. “shutdown” refers to any part of the government not operating as “normal.” The intent of the question is a shutdown as a result of not passing a budget.. which seems to be an annual problem. I (personally) have no hope for this year so wanted to see what happened for next year. If the government were to shut down before Oct. 1 and remain shut down on oct 1 then this market would cash out as “yes.” There are other markets for this years’ budget if you’re interested.

I will add notes to the criteria. Thanks.

Rationales

"How can the two parties fix out of controll spending and debt if they can't even fix programs with a criminal record?"

unregistered_user_!xshun6E bought at 7.99%
September 29, 2015 @ 03:21pm PDT

"A shut down would be catastrophic for the Republican image. They relearned their lesson two years ago. "

loaldo sold at 37.10%
September 17, 2015 @ 12:54pm PDT

historical trend

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