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When will the United States next increase or suspend its debt ceiling?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Before October 9

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Before October 16

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

Before October 23

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Between October 23 and October 29

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Between October 30 and November 05

(closed)

Predicted: 96.89%

Actual: 100.00%

Between November 06 and November 12

(closed)

Predicted: 0.77%

Actual: 0.00%

Between November 13 and November 19

(closed)

Predicted: 0.70%

Actual: 0.00%

Between November 20 and November 26

(closed)

Predicted: 0.70%

Actual: 0.00%

Between November 27 and December 03

(closed)

Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.00%

Between December 04 and December 10

(closed)

Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.00%

Between December 11 and December 17

(closed)

Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.00%

Between December 18 and December 24

(closed)

Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.00%

Between December 25 and December 31

(closed)

Predicted: 0.08%

Actual: 0.00%

Between January 01 and January 07

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

Not before January 08

(closed)

Predicted: 0.09%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 07, 2016 @ 10:00pm PST

Predictions Made

65

Most by: malcmur (18 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

BeteNoire   •   Sat Oct 31 2015 at 01:45pm PDT

Ben, can you clos out the Oct 29th date?

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Wed Oct 07 2015 at 10:31am PDT

Note to forecasters: I’ve adjusted each of the date ranges forward by three days. Debt payments are made on Thursdays, and ranges now each end on a Thursday.

For each user who made forecasts prior to the change, I’ve credited their accounts equal to their existing positions’ maximum loss. Feel free to update your positions based on the new date ranges.

Apologies for the confusion.

Rationales

"Hill announces White House and GOP near a deal"

djdc821 bought Between October 23 and October 29 at 4.06%
October 26, 2015 @ 10:35am PDT

"GOP has increasingly resigned itself to a "clean" debt limit vote before Boehner's successor takes over."

djdc821 bought Between October 30 and November 05 at 66.81%
October 23, 2015 @ 06:05am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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More information about the possible answers

Before October 9

Before October 16

Before October 23

Between October 23 and October 29

Between October 30 and November 05

Between November 06 and November 12

Between November 13 and November 19

Between November 20 and November 26

Between November 27 and December 03

Between December 04 and December 10

Between December 11 and December 17

Between December 18 and December 24

Between December 25 and December 31

Between January 01 and January 07

Not before January 08