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When (if ever) will the United States miss a debt payment?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Before October 9

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Between October 9 and October 15

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Between October 16 and October 22

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Between October 23 and October 29

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Between October 30 and November 05

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Between November 06 and November 12

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Between November 13 and November 19

(closed)

0.03%

Between November 20 and November 26

(closed)

0.67%

Between November 27 and December 03

(closed)

0.22%

Between December 04 and December 10

(closed)

0.22%

Between December 11 and December 17

(closed)

0.22%

Between December 18 and December 24

(closed)

0.22%

Not before December 25

(closed)

98.41%

  • expired

Question ends

December 24, 2015 @ 10:00pm PST

Predictions Made

34

Most by: BeteNoire (14 predictions)

Discussion

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BeteNoire   •   Mon Nov 02 2015 at 04:20pm PST

Ben, can you close out the Oct 29th answer?

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Wed Oct 07 2015 at 09:49am PDT

Note to forecasters: I’ve adjusted each of the date ranges forward by three days. Debt payments are made on Thursdays, and ranges now each end on a Thursday. Each range still covers the same potential date of missed payment, so this change won’t affect existing forecasts.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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More information about the possible answers

Before October 9

Between October 9 and October 15

Between October 16 and October 22

Between October 23 and October 29

Between October 30 and November 05

Between November 06 and November 12

Between November 13 and November 19

Between November 20 and November 26

Between November 27 and December 03

Between December 04 and December 10

Between December 11 and December 17

Between December 18 and December 24

Not before December 25