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Of the Democratic Presidential hopefuls, which current front-runner will be the first to concede and drop-out?




Barack Obama


Predicted: 0.22%

Actual: 0.00%

Hilary Clinton


Predicted: 0.16%

Actual: 0.00%

John Edwards


Predicted: 99.62%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

February 01, 2008 @ 08:45am PST

Predictions Made


Most by: onemike (6 predictions)


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Goose   •   Wed Jan 30 2008 at 05:15am PST

Alamla: Can I get an official ruling? I think the market is more interesting if it includes the time factor, ie, will John Edwards admit the obvious before Super Tuesday? Then again, I do hold a rather large position based on that assumption. :-)

Goose   •   Tue Jan 29 2008 at 02:09pm PST

I am curious. This market is currently scheduled to end on Feb 1st. Will John Edwards cash out at $0 if he does not drop out before then? While I agree that he will be the next major Democrat to concede, it is extraordinarily unlikely that he will do so before this Friday. If this market does indeed cash out before Super Tuesday, it is seriously mispriced.

zakarria   •   Tue Jan 29 2008 at 04:38pm PST

Goose: It would be seriously screwy if this market cashed out before one of the candidates drops out. The question does not contain any “by x date” clause, and “none of the above” is not an answer. It should have been given a much later closing date or been phrased much much differently. …in fact, I’m pretty sure the market manager can’t cash it out without making one of them a winning stock, due to the type of market it is. As it is, I assume the options are extend the end date (reasonable, since it wasn’t a question that necessarily would end by a particular date other than when the primaries are over), or leave it closed and un-cashed-out until one candidate backs out. Which would be kind of annoying.

mvguy   •   Fri Oct 19 2007 at 07:56pm PDT

Thanks. That’s what I thought, but I wanted to make sure.

alamla   •   Thu Oct 18 2007 at 08:11am PDT

Based on the truncated primary season this year, we will know early who the nominee will be; therefore suspending campaign will be treated as conceding and dropping out of contention.

mvguy   •   Thu Oct 18 2007 at 07:15am PDT

In recent pre-convention campaigns, it has not been unusual for a candidate to suspend his campaign, technically maintaining a candidacy but not not really dropping out and not really conceding. (Sometimes they do this so they can get federal campaign financing to pay off campaign debts.) How would a situation like this be treated in this market? Thanks.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).