MSNBC: “NASA drops plan to fly new spaceships by 2013”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26156134/

I think it’s going to be a long long time…

Will you require it to be in a NASA built/owned vehicle? They might buy/rent some thing from another government or even a private company if R&D take too long. How would that effect this market?

Seems to me that, technically, a non-NASA built/owned vehicle would fit the bill if it is fully crewed by NASA astronauts though that may not have been the intent of the market creator given the references to NASA’a shuttle replacement.

Having said that, it seems unlikely that any other government would allow NASA to fully crew one of theirs. Also, while a private company may be more willing to rent them one, it is debatable whether NASA would voluntarily choose to do that unless their project is woefully behind schedule. They survived years between the Apollo missions and the shuttle and can always hitch rides to the space station with the Russians.

Mr Bolden, the Nasa administrator, says a privately developed US “crew taxi” could be ready by 2016 but many regard his timescale as optimistic.

SpaceX thinks it could have a crew-capable spacecraft ready in 3 years after getting go-ahead from NASA. That hasn’t happened yet.

Only other alternative for something sooner is probably Russia or China turning over a spacecraft. Doesn’t seem likely…

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41279893/ns/technology_and_science-space/

2014 at best unless NASA rents/buys a Soyuz.

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/04/22/6513980-how-tycoons-will-fuel-spaceflight

2015 apparently now the optimistic date.

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/07/18/7105625-rocket-venture-to-work-with-nasa

Sounds like target is 2016.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45007639/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/nasas-future-rides-commercial-space-success-deputy-chief-says/#.TqTAlKN5mSM

I’ve been looking for somewhere to park my cash since the Boeing market ended. This one should be comparably good over the long term.

It is but it will be tied up for a couple of years. I trust you’ve kept a few Inkles free for day to day trading. While I have a sizeable position here (and my net worth appreciates you pushing the price up), I still have free Inkles lying around.

For what it is worth, this one – http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/14551 – probably cashes out a bit earlier. Absent something unusual happening in Malaysian politics causing an earlier cash out, should cash out on September 8th 2015 at September 8 2015.

2106 now sounding optimistic.

http://science.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/06/18086556-congress-urged-to-fund-private-astronaut-taxis?lite

It may be sooner than you think, based on this success: http://tinyurl.com/ocppmby

Not sure they want to go up in something that is designed to burn up on re-entry. Dragon, on the other hand, has been flying for a while but I think they are still on target for 2016+ for manned version.

Yes, well, I suppose you have a point. ;)

I would consider a one way trip to Mars (http://www.mars-one.com). However, I don’t think I would consider this, either one way or round trip. ;-)

2017 at earliest.

http://t.nbcnews.com/science/nasa-outlines-final-steps-plan-next-manned-spaceships-2D11624551

This question has been refunded due to its long timeframe.

Why is a long lifetime a reason to refund? Your system allowed a much longer lifetime when this was created, why the sudden unannounced and retroactive policy change?