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What date will the first U.S. NASA crewed mission acheive low earth orbit after the retirement of the space shuttle?

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March 01, 2020 @ 02:42pm PST



Predictions Made


Most by: job (274 predictions)


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wstritt   •   Tue Aug 12 2008 at 09:33am PDT

MSNBC: “NASA drops plan to fly new spaceships by 2013”

I think it’s going to be a long long time…

zakarria   •   Fri Nov 14 2008 at 08:39pm PST

Will you require it to be in a NASA built/owned vehicle? They might buy/rent some thing from another government or even a private company if R&D take too long. How would that effect this market?

wstritt   •   Tue Nov 18 2008 at 09:05pm PST

Seems to me that, technically, a non-NASA built/owned vehicle would fit the bill if it is fully crewed by NASA astronauts though that may not have been the intent of the market creator given the references to NASA’a shuttle replacement.

Having said that, it seems unlikely that any other government would allow NASA to fully crew one of theirs. Also, while a private company may be more willing to rent them one, it is debatable whether NASA would voluntarily choose to do that unless their project is woefully behind schedule. They survived years between the Apollo missions and the shuttle and can always hitch rides to the space station with the Russians.

wstritt   •   Wed Mar 17 2010 at 08:24pm PDT

wstritt   •   Fri Jan 28 2011 at 09:57am PST

SpaceX thinks it could have a crew-capable spacecraft ready in 3 years after getting go-ahead from NASA. That hasn’t happened yet.

Only other alternative for something sooner is probably Russia or China turning over a spacecraft. Doesn’t seem likely…

wstritt   •   Sun Apr 24 2011 at 05:13am PDT

wstritt   •   Tue Jul 19 2011 at 08:39am PDT

wstritt   •   Sun Oct 23 2011 at 06:39pm PDT

mvguy   •   Sun Oct 23 2011 at 08:27pm PDT

I’ve been looking for somewhere to park my cash since the Boeing market ended. This one should be comparably good over the long term.

wstritt   •   Sun Oct 23 2011 at 08:39pm PDT

It is but it will be tied up for a couple of years. I trust you’ve kept a few Inkles free for day to day trading. While I have a sizeable position here (and my net worth appreciates you pushing the price up), I still have free Inkles lying around.

For what it is worth, this one – – probably cashes out a bit earlier. Absent something unusual happening in Malaysian politics causing an earlier cash out, should cash out on September 8th 2015 at September 8 2015.

wstritt   •   Mon May 06 2013 at 06:09pm PDT

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Sep 29 2013 at 05:41am PDT

It may be sooner than you think, based on this success:

wstritt   •   Sun Sep 29 2013 at 07:11am PDT

Not sure they want to go up in something that is designed to burn up on re-entry. Dragon, on the other hand, has been flying for a while but I think they are still on target for 2016+ for manned version.

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Sep 29 2013 at 10:48am PDT

Yes, well, I suppose you have a point. ;)

K1050   •   Sun Sep 29 2013 at 03:23pm PDT

I would consider a one way trip to Mars ( However, I don’t think I would consider this, either one way or round trip. ;-)

wstritt   •   Tue Nov 19 2013 at 06:45pm PST

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Mon Oct 26 2015 at 09:15am PDT

This question has been refunded due to its long timeframe.

Polyergic   •   Mon Oct 26 2015 at 12:28pm PDT

Why is a long lifetime a reason to refund? Your system allowed a much longer lifetime when this was created, why the sudden unannounced and retroactive policy change?


"I have plenty of cash sitting around, so I might as well spend some of it on a sure bet."

mvguy bought at January 15, 2013
May 10, 2011 @ 09:31pm PDT

historical trend

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Date orbit achieved