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When will the US have its first outbreak of Avian Flu?




First half of 2008 (Before July 1st)


Predicted: 1.88%

Actual: 0.00%

First half of 2009 (Jan 1st - Jun 30)


Predicted: 0.23%

Actual: 0.00%

In 2010


Predicted: 1.07%

Actual: 0.00%

In 2011


Predicted: 0.49%

Actual: 0.00%

Second half of 2008 (July 1st-Dec 31st)


Predicted: 0.90%

Actual: 0.00%

Second half of 2009 (July 1st-Dec 31st)


Predicted: 1.21%

Actual: 0.00%

Will not happen before 2012


Predicted: 99.51%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2011 @ 11:59pm PST



Predictions Made


Most by: ChloeBurns (27 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Jan 02 2012 at 06:22pm PST

Buying “Not before 2012” was one of my first trades when I joined Inkling in 2008. I more than doubled my investment. Sometimes buy-and-hold is just the right strategy.

K1050   •   Tue Apr 06 2010 at 05:07pm PDT

No reports in second half of 2009 either. Can we close that out ?

K1050   •   Tue Apr 06 2010 at 05:38pm PDT

And thanks for the quick response. That was fast!

wstritt   •   Wed Jul 01 2009 at 06:10am PDT

wstritt   •   Thu Jan 01 2009 at 07:12am PST

No Avian Flu outbreak in the US as of 1/1/09. Second half of 2008 should cash out at 0.

rwhitney   •   Wed Jan 16 2008 at 12:34am PST

Should be an actual set of cases in the state, where its spreading. An American catching it while working overseas really wouldn’t count. If the CDC or WHO post about it, then it’d definitely count. I’d also say if some announcements to that effect hit newspapers. That make sense?

Larosa   •   Tue Jan 15 2008 at 06:59pm PST

What qualifies as an ‘outbreak’ of Avian flu? Is this basically predicting the first case? or the first group of cases that spread significantly?

historical trend

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