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When will another human set foot on the Moon?

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December 31, 2020 @ 06:47pm PST

Predictions Made


Most by: job (265 predictions)


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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Mon Oct 26 2015 at 09:17am PDT

This question has been refunded due to its long timeframe.

mvguy   •   Mon Oct 26 2015 at 12:41pm PDT

I’ve had a huge portion of my assets tied up in markets such as this one, so I’ve suddenly become poorer.

This isn’t a complaint, just an observation. I’ve enjoyed my hours on this site, and I’m sad to see them coming to a close.

wstritt   •   Thu Dec 29 2011 at 03:20pm PST

wstritt   •   Tue Nov 11 2008 at 06:41pm PST

Who shorted 1500+ shares? Did I miss some news?

theycallmemorty   •   Wed Dec 30 2009 at 06:46am PST

A bit late on the reply, but that was probably me. This market seemed like a great way to earn inkles but a terrible way to enjoy the site. :P I simply had way too much cash tied up here.

wstritt   •   Wed Dec 30 2009 at 08:38am PST

This and similar stocks are guaranteed winners…just a long way off to ultimate cash out. Not a bad place to park inkles you don’t know what else to do with as they tend to move up over time.

For similar markets that have a realistic chance of paying off before 2020, might I suggest:

‘How much will people in Massachusetts be ticketed for possesion of majiuana in 2009?’ which closes tomorrow but should pay off sometime in January with at least a 60% gain based on press reports so far (see comments in market).

‘When will Boeing make delivery of its first 787?’ which should pay off sometime in 4Q’10 (or maybe 2011 if further delayed). Only another 150 points or so of upside though.

I would note that after the Massachusetts market pays off, there will around 11MM inkles (based on 8260 shares times at least 1316inkles/share) suddenly available to current holders that will have to go somewhere, likely into the “large cap” long term markets, driving buying pressure and price spikes in those markets.

It isn’t very hard to figure out who among the top traders holds how much of what so where the buying pressure is likely to be concentrated. I would imagine savvy traders with spare capital might find some quick inkles there.

mvguy   •   Sat Nov 22 2008 at 03:51pm PST

Somebody must have wanted some cash. It wasn’t I. I’m not aware of any major news you missed.

wstritt   •   Tue Nov 25 2008 at 04:44pm PST

The interesting thing is that at the moment I own 2050 shares of Man on the Moon which, by itself should cause the stock to trade at 410. As of 5 minutes ago, based on watching the movement of Inkle balances when I traded 50 shares, 4 other “top 10” traders hold the following positions: Trader A – 310, Trader B – 450, Trader C – 220, and Trader D – 100. Trader E, who is not in the top 10 also holds 220 shares for another 1300 “long” shares accounted for. Balances have been fluctuating a bit as a couple of the “Top 10” have “lightened up” since the stock peaked at 401 however shareholdings are pretty concentrated.

With 3350 long shares, the stock should be trading at 670 Inkles. Since it is trading at 361.40, there is a 308.60 “gap” that can only be explained by someone holding a 1543 share short position (more if there are other longs out there). Depending on what they sold at (and I’m thinking an average of ~170 inkles given the stock bottomed around 40 on the 11th), they are at least 290,000 inkles under water at current prices and 600,000 inkles under water to cover the short.

Aside from the top 25 traders, no one had the balance to do the short if the starting sale price was reserved (i.e. to reverse the trade). As best I can tell, none of the top traders have dropped that significantly so I’m guessing a rogue trader exploited a temporary glitch that only reserved 100 inkles for a short rather than what “worst case” would have required. Hole has since been fixed but I imagine the rogue trader has been wiped out as unable to cover the short. Either that or I missed someone plummeting who is now in a world of hurt.

mvguy   •   Thu Nov 27 2008 at 07:44am PST

Very interesting. How does selling short work on markets like this (ones where it’s not a $100 cashout but open-ended)?

wstritt   •   Sat Nov 29 2008 at 08:40am PST

It would appear that shorting one of these stocks now results in the entire proceeds of the short being reserved – at least thats what happened to me when I just shorted 5 shares of the Constitution market. I immediately reversed the trade so didn’t hang around to see what happened if someone else subsequently bought shares. I would imagine Inkling should require more inkles be set aside but who knows.

Maybe a year ago or so, I tried the same thing and all that was reserved was 100 inkles (that being the standard “worst case”). Seemed to me that could be a risky though easy way to raise cash to invest in some quick hit market if done judiciously. By that time though I had enough inkles to not bother. A couple of months later when I checked it again, the full proceeds of the sale was reserved. I’m guessing Inkling noticed the potential problem.

Shortly after the early November collapse in this market and I did the calculation that suggested there were more long shares than indicated by the price, I figured that the loophole had reopened. I shorted 5 shares of the Constitution market again and, sure enough, my available balance went up as only 100 were reserved. I asked Inkling what happened to the 1500 short that should have gotten squeezed by the subsequent rebound to 400. I received no response but the loophole was closed shortly thereafter and remains so as of my check today.

theycallmemorty   •   Wed Jan 23 2008 at 12:37pm PST

I wish I had more money when this was only $10/share. I could only afford three shares. :(

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