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Will Hillary Clinton win super Tuesday (majority of delegates?)

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 80.66%

Actual: 80.66%

  • refunded

Question ends

February 05, 2008 @ 03:00pm PST

Predictions Made

37

Most by: bobthevirus (5 predictions)

Discussion

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adam (ADMIN)   •   Thu Feb 14 2008 at 03:54pm PST

We’re still here looking at this market and following the discussion – happy to refund it but it seems if we wait a bit longer, there will be some sort of definitive answer. In cases like these we usually refer to multiple reputable news sources, i.e. if CNN, NYTimes, CSPAN all say one thing, that’s the way we would probably cash it out.

seed   •   Wed Feb 13 2008 at 11:32am PST

Here and Update from Fox, which is the only site I can find that DOES NOT include super delegates in their totals

  • FOX : Obama : Clinton
  • Alabama : 20 : 21
  • Alaska : 9 : 4
  • Arizona : 25 : 30
  • Arkansas : 7 : 24
  • California : 152 : 195
  • Colorado : 19 : 9
  • Connecticut : 26 : 22
  • Delaware : 9 : 6
  • Georgia : 35 : 19
  • Idaho : 15 : 3
  • Illinois : 83 : 42
  • Kansas : 23 : 9
  • Massachusetts : 38 : 55
  • Minnesota : 48 : 24
  • Missouri : 36 : 36
  • New Jersey : 48 : 59
  • New Mexico : 12 : 13
  • New York : 93 : 138
  • North Dakota : 8 : 5
  • Oklahoma : 14 : 24
  • Tennessee : 23 : 35
  • Utah : 14 : 9

Obama: 757 : Clinton: 782

seed   •   Wed Feb 13 2008 at 07:40am PST

I submitted this market to the support team and did actually receive a response. It was a few days ago, and they mentioned that they were looking into it. Looks like we haven’t heard anything yet.

As for the numbers, I haven’t had the time to dig around and put anything against a calculator. So, at this point, I do not know which candidate received more delegates. It shouldn’t be that hard, right – somebody won?

If it cannot be determined with any certainty, I vote for a refund. That’s the only resolution that is neutral. A draw, in terms of this market, indicates that each candidate received the equal delegates. That’s most likely not the case. If we cannot determine who received more delegates then a refund leaves everybody with a neutral decision.

It’s not that I do not want a ruling on this. It’s just that I don’t think that the evidence is crystal clear, either way.

Larosa   •   Tue Feb 12 2008 at 07:05am PST

Is this going to be decided so we can at least free up our balance sheets?

mvguy   •   Fri Feb 08 2008 at 05:12pm PST

Here’s the latest (6 p.m. PST February 8) from the Associated Press:

“Three days after the voting ended, the race for Democratic delegates in Super Tuesday’s contests was still too close to call.

“With nearly 1,600 delegates from Tuesday contests awarded, Sen. Barack Obama led by two delegates Friday night, with 91 delegates still to be awarded.

“Obama won 796 delegates in Tuesday’s contests, to 794 for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to an analysis of voting results by The Associated Press.”

Because of copyright rules I won’t quote the AP further, but the article does go on to say that many of the unresolved delegate allotments are in California and Colorado, and that we won’t know how they ended up for at least another week. The problem in determining things is that Democrats allocate delegates based on congressional district, but states usually count votes by county, and the borders aren’t the same. So somebody has to go through precinct by precinct and figure everything out.

It is possible we may never know how many delegates each candidate earned specifically on Super Tuesday.

seed   •   Thu Feb 07 2008 at 08:36am PST

Ok, then let’s look at the field:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
I totaled the numbers from Super Tuesday results and came with Hilliary. I posted my notes previously.

I did the same exercise for FOX:
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/02/02/national-delegate-count-tally/
Those numbers also indicated a Hilliary victory.

There’s also the Politico article:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html
They quote the Obama camp as winning, which is not convincing. But they do offer an estimate of their own in favor of Obama. But there’s no specific numbers broken down by state. So that leaves me unconvinced, when I can get hard numbers from FOX and CNN, crunch them and get a different result.

Ditto the Bloomberg link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIfM2sJhqJJI&refer=home
Obama thinks they won, Clinton thinks they are ahead by one.

The other link from Politcs1:
http://www.politics1.com/
I don’t see any state by state specifics.

So, that leaves us with tangible numbers from two sources that say Hilliary won, versus a short list of articles that quote the candidates camps, and offer their own estimates without any details. Honestly, I don’t see how the two cam be compared.

seed   •   Thu Feb 07 2008 at 05:26am PST

Well, none of those articles have a breakdown, state-by-state, from Tuesday. MSNBC is a total through Tuesday. Neither do the the other articles. I would suggest that the reason you are not getting anything from Hilliary’s camp is because this is by far not the end of the season. Saying you won by four votes doesn’t get a lot of traction.

Be that as it may. I’m up for a draw.

Larosa   •   Thu Feb 07 2008 at 07:05am PST

In reality, either Obama or Hillary won more delegates on Super Tuesday, so a draw is unnecessary. Plus, I don’t know how a draw would be exercised. I don’t understand your Hillary comment though. These delegate totals are not coming from either Obama’s or Hillary’s camp…they are coming from MSNBC, CNN, Politico.com, etc. Basically, we just need to decide on a definitely source. This may simply need to come down to which unbiased source the market creator chooses.

seed   •   Wed Feb 06 2008 at 08:47pm PST

Of course, this is all fun and games. But pride is worth more than real cash. Here’s my notes from the two sites I cited. Again, there shouldn’t be any Super Delegates included here, and these are just from Tuesday’s states.
(Apologies for the formatting. I wasn’t sure if table tags were allowed here.)

CNN : Obama : Clinton

  1. Alabama : 21 : 23
  2. Alaska : 5 : 10
  3. Arizona : 23 : 29
  4. Arkansas : 6 : 31
  5. California : 35 : 64
  6. Colorado : 15 : 10
  7. Connecticut : 29 : 23
  8. Delaware : 9 : 8
  9. Georgia : 30 : 20
  10. Idaho : 18 : 18
  11. Illinois : 103 : 42
  12. Kansas : 24 : 10
  13. Massachusetts : 43 : 60
  14. Minnesota : 51 : 27
  15. Missouri : 34 : 32
  16. New Jersey : 38 : 61
  17. New Mexico : 1 : 4
  18. New York : 88 : 166
  19. North Dakota : 12 : 5
  20. Oklahoma : 14 : 24
  21. Tennessee : 22 : 35
  22. Utah : 14 : 11
  23. 635 : 713
    FOX

FOX : Obama : Clinton

  1. Alabama : 20 : 21
  2. Alaska : 9 : 4
  3. Arizona : 25 : 30
  4. Arkansas : 7 : 24
  5. California : 152 : 195
  6. Colorado : 19 : 9
  7. Connecticut : 26 : 22
  8. Delaware : 9 : 6
  9. Georgia : 35 : 19
  10. Idaho : 15 : 3
  11. Illinois : 83 : 42
  12. Kansas : 23 : 9
  13. Massachusetts : 38 : 55
  14. Minnesota : 48 : 24
  15. Missouri : 36 : 36
  16. New Jersey : 48 : 59
  17. New Mexico : 12 : 13
  18. New York : 93 : 138
  19. North Dakota : 8 : 5
  20. Oklahoma : 14 : 24
  21. Tennessee : 23 : 35
  22. Utah : 14 : 9
  23. 757 : 782
    CNN

With that, my vote is for Hilliary as the winner. If we cannot agree, I’d be up for a closing without resolution/decision.

seed   •   Wed Feb 06 2008 at 06:29pm PST

Well without seeing Obama’s spreadsheet, I can onlt go by the numbers posted on the news site’s. I just calculated CNN’s ’Tuesday totals.

I went To FOX to see if the had anything drastically different.
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/states/
From there I get: Obama 757 and Hilliary 782

Neither of those totals I have referenced include Super Delegates.

mvguy   •   Wed Feb 06 2008 at 05:50pm PST

This article suggests that Obama picked up a handful more delegates on Super Tuesday than Hillary Clinton did. Like the others have said, you can’t count the superdelegates in making the determination, because those delegates weren’t won on Super Tuesday. This market should resolve to “No.”

On the other hand, the chart on this page would imply that Clinton picked up a few more. Obama is leading in this chart, but he got that margin from South Carolina before Super Tuesday.

And back to the other side, Politics1, which gives me my daily dose of political tidbits, says that Obama earned four more delegates than Clinton did. Unfortunately, the author doesn’t provide his sources.

So take your pick. I’d prefer this to resolve as “no,” but that’s because I took my chances on Obama.

If I were being objective, though, I’d say it’s impossible to tell with certainty how this market should be resolved. At this point, any decision is arbitrary, and I’m not going to complain whatever is decided.

seed   •   Wed Feb 06 2008 at 05:46pm PST

That may be true. Whether Super Delegates were included was never cleared up.

But now that I look at the numbers I do not think it matters. The question is asking if Hilliary will win the majority of Super Tuesday delegates. That means delegates that are decided on Tuesday’s elections, not a total of delegates up and including that day. If that wasn’t the case, then one could argue that New Hampshire’s delegates includes those from Iowa. That is clearly not the case.

That means Hilliary is the winner. If you total the delegates for the two candidates from states that were decided on Tuesday you get the following:

Hilliary: 713
Obama: 635

Larosa   •   Wed Feb 06 2008 at 08:09pm PST

That doesn’t make any sense because Hillary had more delegates going into super tuesday. How could they be even close to tied if she also won more on super tuesday?

seed   •   Wed Feb 06 2008 at 02:49pm PST

CNN has Clinton with a different total, 818 v 730 (Obama):
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

Fox has 845 v 765 (Obama) :
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/02/02/national-delegate-count-tally/

Larosa   •   Wed Feb 06 2008 at 04:38pm PST

That includes superdelegates which are not a part of super tuesday. AS you can see in the following link, Obama has more “pledged” delegates.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

Larosa   •   Wed Feb 06 2008 at 01:30pm PST

I think Obama got the majority of delegates.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22419475

zakarria   •   Mon Feb 04 2008 at 10:12am PST

I assume you mean pledged delegates dictated by Super Tuesday voting, and not any superdelegates that happen to endorse on that day… Can we get a specific source to go by? (CNN’s done a pretty good job with this so far.)

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