Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Who will lead the standings in the NL Central May 1st 2008?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Chicago

(closed)

Predicted: 19.89%

Actual: 100.00%

Cincinnati

(closed)

Predicted: 4.90%

Actual: 0.00%

Houston

(closed)

Predicted: 2.20%

Actual: 0.00%

Milwaukee

(closed)

Predicted: 19.89%

Actual: 0.00%

Pittsburgh

(closed)

Predicted: 4.90%

Actual: 0.00%

St. Louis

(closed)

Predicted: 40.88%

Actual: 0.00%

Tied between two or more teams

(closed)

Predicted: 7.31%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

April 17, 2008 @ 06:00am PDT

Predictions Made

25

Most by: BobM (12 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

sirfussypants   •   Thu May 01 2008 at 02:47pm PDT

Thanks for the feedback; when I designed the market I had the intention that the answer would be based on Games Ahead/Behind, but I did not state what ranking I’d be using. The winning PCT is a more accurate gauge and should be considered the definition of “leading”. I’ve sent a request to Inkling asking that they reverse the payout, and I’ll make a note on ongoing markets about what stat will be used to determine “standings”. As for the NL East market, the teams are even based on a game played today; games played prior to May 1st had Florida ahead by 0.5 games with a PCT of .556, definitively ahead of the other teams in the division. Thanks for not have a complete fit, and working things out pleasantly.
Cheers,

Sir Fussypants

chelseaboys   •   Thu May 01 2008 at 12:57pm PDT

I agree with DaBeef as you never defined “tied” as referring to the “games behind” column in which the teams are, in fact, tied. You used the term “lead the standings” and the Cubs are technically ahead in the standings. Inkling’s administrative staff can reverse it for you.

DaBeef   •   Thu May 01 2008 at 07:41am PDT

You closed out he wrong answer. The right answer is Chicago Cubs not tied. The stock stated “Who will lead the standings” not . Even though the Cubs and St.Louis are even in games back the Cubs are still in first in the standing due the fact they have a better winning PCT. That is why they are listed above St.Louis in the standings. In order for a tied to occur they would have to have the exact same record. If you look at the NL East you will notice that NY is 2nd and Philly is in 3rd for the same reason.

DaBeef   •   Wed Apr 30 2008 at 09:50pm PDT

Just wanted to know if you are including the games to be played on May 1st or not.

sirfussypants   •   Thu Apr 24 2008 at 04:27pm PDT

Some people were bent out of shape that these markets closed for trading two weeks before their pay-out. Keeping the market open longer presents a more precise picture of what the results will be and thereby reduces the opportunity for speculation and chance. A “sure thing” may be nice for the easy money, but it’s not much of a challenge to pick one… I’m sorry if this presented an inconvienence for folks, but the parameters for the markets were clearly spelled out.

DaBeef   •   Fri Apr 18 2008 at 09:27pm PDT

is this really closed. Stock says “Who will lead the standings in NL central May 1st 2008” how does it close April 17th.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader

More information about the possible answers

Chicago

Cincinnati

Houston

Milwaukee

Pittsburgh

St. Louis

Tied between two or more teams