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Will the Florida delegation be seated at the 2008 Democratic National Convention before a presidential candidate is nominated?






Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

Partially, or its vote will be reduced.


Predicted: 0.12%

Actual: 0.00%

Yes, after caucuses or a new primary.


Predicted: 12.54%

Actual: 0.00%

Yes, as if it had never been excluded.


Predicted: 99.10%

Actual: 100.00%

Yes, but its votes will be allocated.


Predicted: 0.72%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 25, 2008 @ 12:00pm PDT

Predictions Made


Most by: MFWinAlford (30 predictions)


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wstritt   •   Mon Aug 25 2008 at 11:55am PDT

“Democratic delegates from Michigan and Florida were awarded full voting rights at the national convention Sunday, despite holding early primaries against party rules.”

wstritt   •   Sun Aug 03 2008 at 03:34pm PDT

August 3, 2008 – “Obama calls for giving ‘full vote’ to Michigan, Florida delegates”

mvguy   •   Sun Aug 03 2008 at 07:16pm PDT

At this point (definitely subject to change), I’d interpret Obama’s request to the Credentials Committee as “Yes, as if it had never been excluded.” I suppose we’ll find out for sure soon.

wstritt   •   Sun Aug 03 2008 at 07:27pm PDT

Given the way this has been bouncing around, who knows what final answer may be. Obama’s forces on credentials committee may want to “allocate” the delegates to avoid an “August surprise” from the Clinton camp. Clinton forces may take offense at that leaving it as stalemate at current 50% representation. Strong argument for not closing markets early but keeping them open until answer is nailed down.

Real question is, will Narnia hold on to #10 slot in your summer movie market.

mvguy   •   Sun Aug 03 2008 at 07:37pm PDT

You’re right on both counts (how the delegates will be allocated and the movie market).

I think that with the Florida delegation, the easiest thing to do would be just to give them all a full vote according to the primary vote (as it stands now, they’d get half votes based on the primary). But I’m certainly not going to suggest that’s how people invest in this market. It’s certainly possible that the Credentials Committee will want to stand by its guns; over the long run (but not the short run) it might be the smart thing to do. The Michigan situation is a bit more complicated. There’s more than one way they can get a “full vote.”

And as to the summer movie market, Narnia 2 has suddenly started looking pretty good. I don’t think Star Wars will beat it (it’s kind of a movie version of a TV program), and I tend to think that Tropic Thunder will be too coarse to attract a really broad audience. But I could be wrong on both counts.

wstritt   •   Sun Aug 03 2008 at 08:50pm PDT

My impression is that the credentials committee is not really an independent body interested in preserving a precedent but a body dominated by Obama and Clinton partisans following the directions of their leaders – each with enough to block the other when it mattered and now presumably still willing to follow orders when it doesn’t.

I think you are right on Star Wars – a 90 minute precursor to a TV cartoon show – can’t imagine it will attract a big audience. No clue about Tropic Thunder but based on various projections, it seems to be the best bet left this summer to possibly unseat Narnia.

mvguy   •   Mon Aug 04 2008 at 07:45am PDT

Yeah, when the committee had its “showdown” meeting earlier this year, most of the members voted as partisans, although not all. But it’s hard to imagine something that both Obama and Clinton agreeing to being rejected. In any case, the market will remain open at least until the committee has its say, longer if there’s any talk whatsoever about appealling its ruling.

As to Tropic Thunder, it’s difficult for an R-rated film to break through. Of the top 10 so far, only Sex and the City (which had a huge audience waiting for it) and Wanted were so rated. Tropic Thunder does have some big names, though, and also some controversy, which seldom hurts at the box office.

mvguy   •   Sat Jun 14 2008 at 08:07pm PDT

I was hoping to close out this market soon, and then this news item showed up today. So I may have to wait until the credentials committee sorts this out.

Edited to add: The above link no longer works. The gist of the story is that the governor of Michigan says Obama has assured her that the full delegations of Michigan and Florida will be seated.

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