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Will any Democratic candidate have the 2025 delegates needed to win by August 1, 2008?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 98.27%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 01, 2008 @ 12:00am PDT

Predictions Made

95

Most by: MFWinAlford (11 predictions)

Discussion

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wstritt   •   Tue Jun 10 2008 at 05:44am PDT

CNN says Obama has 2158 delegates versus 2118 needed to win.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/

FoxNews says Obama has 2180 delegates versus 2118 needed to win.

http://elections.foxnews.com/candidates/ (see chart in righthand column – need to scroll down a bit)

Average of the two is 2169 versus the 2118 needed to win.

Per market creator’s comment of 3/21/08 that the above would be the reference point, this market should close out at 100.

davidd8663   •   Thu Jun 05 2008 at 06:55pm PDT

Even with the increased from MI and FL’s half votes, Obama has more than enough. I agree it should be cashed out.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Jun 04 2008 at 09:47am PDT

Since Obama has declared he will be the nominee (and CNN, AP, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, etc., etc. agree), it seems this market should pay out now. Any reason to wait till 8/1?

RecycledCardboardBox   •   Thu May 29 2008 at 01:18pm PDT

What happens to this market if some of the Michigan and Florida delegates are seated? In this case, 2025 delegates won’t be sufficient to win.

bspecht   •   Fri Mar 21 2008 at 09:43am PDT

I will use an average of the counts made by CNN and Fox News, while this will create some room for error, it seems to be the simplest and fairest way to evaluate the count

zakarria   •   Wed Mar 05 2008 at 10:25am PST

mvguy asks a good question. A lot of the difference in delegate estimates will be cleared up by August, because the Caucus process will have completed. However, another big question is, will you be counting polling of superdelegates? Superdelegates won’t actually place a vote till the convention, but most of them will have publicly stated a preference by the first of August. With the race this close and 700 superdelegates (half of whom are already included in most of the delegate tallies at news sites), it’s almost a given that no one will have 2025 without superdelegates, and that they will if you count superdelegates.

mvguy   •   Wed Mar 05 2008 at 09:28am PST

Whose delegate count will you use to determine how many delegates a candidate has?

sbalen   •   Wed Mar 05 2008 at 07:20am PST

historical trend

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