I first got my taste for prediction markets during the election campaigns for the 2008 cycle. CNN was running markets for primaries and candidates and I was far away from home for several weeks when I stumbled upon them. Playing those markets gave me a taste and when they ended and it became apparent that CNN wasn’t going to re-open them for the 2010 cycle I looked for their source and found this place.
My methods aren’t unique but I try to take a varied approach. If I can jump on a market right after it opens I try and take the position I expect the public to take and then cash out and wait for the true answer to begin to emerge and then jump back in. This costs me inkles sometimes because it is difficult to time when or if markets are going to turn but it does support quick profit while allowing for liquidity and lower risk of complete loss of an investment.
Now that I have built my account up enough to have a little to play with I also look for partners/opponents on long term questions that disagree with me. If I can find someone who wants to take an opposite position from me it allows both of us to buy heavily into a market by both of us making several small purchases without having to suffer the major price shifts for making the large purchase. I don’t actually try and arrange these types of purchases I just look for positions that seem to be bouncing back to a certain price range abnormally. That sometimes indicate that someone else is doing what I just described.
Some may say that how I buy isn’t in the spirit of predictive markets because I am not always making my purchases based on my expected outcome. I would counter that to say that at the onset or middle of a market that may be true but I never intend to ride out a position that I expect to see lose but will either bail out or switch sides if I can at the end.