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refunded
If the United States does not increase or suspend its debt ceiling by November 12, will it miss debt payments on the following days?
Most Likely Answer
November 12
64.30% chance
November 12
64.30% chance
November 19
22.31% chance
November 26
14.99% chance
December 3
14.99% chance

refunded
If the United States does not increase or suspend its debt ceiling by November 5, will it miss debt payments on the following days?
Most Likely Answer
November 05
64.30% chance
November 05
64.30% chance
November 12
29.99% chance
November 19
12.61% chance
November 26
9.66% chance

expired
When (if ever) will the United States miss a debt payment?
Most Active Answer
Not before December 25
98.41% chance
Before October 9
0.00% chance
Between October 9 and October 15
0.00% chance
Between October 16 and October 22
0.00% chance
Between October 23 and October 29
0.00% chance
Between October 30 and November 05
0.00% chance
Between November 06 and November 12
0.00% chance
Between November 13 and November 19
0.03% chance
Between November 20 and November 26
0.67% chance
Between November 27 and December 03
0.22% chance
Between December 04 and December 10
0.22% chance
Between December 11 and December 17
0.22% chance
Between December 18 and December 24
0.22% chance
Not before December 25
98.41% chance
When (if ever) will the United States miss a debt payment?
Most Active Answer
Between January 31 and July 31
47.02% chance
no change ($0.00) today
Before February 01
0.00% chance
Before August 01
0.00% chance
Before February 01
0.00% chance
Before August 01
0.00% chance
Before February 01
42.04% chance
Between January 31 and July 31
47.02% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between July 31 and January 31
25.59% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between January 31 and July 31
13.39% chance
no change ($0.00)
Not before July 31
13.99% chance
no change ($0.00)
When will a mining pool attain more than 50% of the Bitcoin network power?
Most Active Answer
Between July 31 and January 31
39.39% chance
no change ($0.00) today
Before February 01
0.00% chance
Before August 01
0.00% chance
Before February 01
0.00% chance
Before August 01
0.00% chance
Before February 01
15.81% chance
Between January 31 and July 31
10.46% chance
Between July 31 and January 31
39.39% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between January 31 and July 31
26.08% chance
no change ($0.00)
Between July 31 and January 31
17.26% chance
no change ($0.00)
Not before January 31
17.26% chance
no change ($0.00)
When will either the United States or China build an encryption cracking quantum computer?
Most Active Answer
Between December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2018
28.14% chance
Before January 01, 2016
0.00% chance
Before January 01, 2017
0.00% chance
Before January 01, 2018
27.58% chance
Between December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2018
28.14% chance
Between December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2019
15.55% chance
Between December 31, 2019 and December 31, 2020
7.78% chance
Not before December 31, 2020
8.38% chance
no change ($0.00)
When will quantum key distribution be integrated into a commercially available mobile device?
Most Active Answer
Between December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2018
29.96% chance
Before January 01, 2016
0.00% chance
Before January 01, 2017
0.00% chance
Before January 01, 2018
25.87% chance
Between December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2018
29.96% chance
Between December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2019
14.98% chance
Not before December 31, 2019
14.98% chance
no change ($0.00)
When will quantum key distribution be integrated into a prototype mobile device?
Most Active Answer
Before January 01, 2018
30.81% chance
Before January 01, 2016
0.00% chance
Before January 01, 2017
0.00% chance
Before January 01, 2018
30.81% chance
Between December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2018
14.45% chance
Between December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2019
7.23% chance
Not before December 31, 2019
7.23% chance
no change ($0.00)
When will Google's Project Glass launch? (continuous date version)
Most Active Answer
Before January 01, 2018
22.06% chance
Before January 01, 2016
0.00% chance
Before January 01, 2017
0.00% chance
Before January 01, 2018
22.06% chance
Between December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2018
22.06% chance
Between December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2019
11.48% chance
Between December 31, 2019 and December 31, 2020
5.74% chance
Not before December 31, 2020
5.74% chance
no change ($0.00)

expired
How many 3pointers will Anthony Davis make in the 20152016 season?
Most Active Answer
2549
28.82% chance
024
19.88% chance
2549
28.82% chance
5074
28.82% chance
7599
18.56% chance
100+
3.90% chance

suspended
Will / when will polygamy be legal in the entire United States?
Most Active Answer
Not before January 01, 2035
54.73% chance
Before January 01, 2020
4.39% chance
Between January 01, 2020 and December 31, 2024
13.44% chance
Between January 01, 2025 and December 31, 2029
13.99% chance
Between January 01, 2030 and December 31, 2034
13.44% chance
Not before January 01, 2035
54.73% chance

expired
Will each presidential candidate win the 2016 presidential election if nominated by a major party?
Most Active Answer
Hillary Clinton
65.93% chance
Hillary Clinton
65.93% chance
Elizabeth Warren
40.33% chance
Deval Patrick
43.74% chance
Jeb Bush
23.94% chance
Scott Walker
0.97% chance
Rand Paul
28.26% chance
Ted Cruz
19.16% chance
Mike Huckabee
22.10% chance
Marco Rubio
36.17% chance

expired
When will Cuba announce or confirm the death of Fidel Castro?
Most Active Answer
2015
47.37% chance
2015
47.37% chance
2016
27.05% chance
2017
20.78% chance
2018 or later
4.79% chance

completed
When will the United States next increase or suspend its debt ceiling?
Most Likely Answer
Between October 30 and November 05
100.00% chance
Before October 9
0.00% chance
Before October 16
0.00% chance
Before October 23
0.00% chance
Between October 23 and October 29
0.00% chance
Between October 30 and November 05
100.00% chance
Between November 06 and November 12
0.00% chance
Between November 13 and November 19
0.00% chance
Between November 20 and November 26
0.00% chance
Between November 27 and December 03
0.00% chance
Between December 04 and December 10
0.00% chance
Between December 11 and December 17
0.00% chance
Between December 18 and December 24
0.00% chance
Between December 25 and December 31
0.00% chance
Between January 01 and January 07
0.00% chance
Not before January 08
0.00% chance

completed
When will the United States next increase its debt ceiling?
Most Likely Answer
Before December 01
100.00% chance
Before September 01
0.00% chance
Before October 01
0.00% chance
Before November 01
0.00% chance
Before December 01
100.00% chance
Between November 30 and December 31
0.00% chance
Between December 31 and January 31
0.00% chance
Between January 31 and February 29
0.00% chance
Between February 29 and March 31
0.00% chance
Between March 29 and April 30
0.00% chance
Between April 29 and May 31
0.00% chance
Not before May 29
0.00% chance

completed
Following the 2015 Canadian election, which party will the Canadian Prime Minister belong to?
Most Likely Answer
Liberals
100.00% chance
Conservatives
0.00% chance
Liberals
100.00% chance
National Democratic Party
0.00% chance
Other or None
0.00% chance

completed
What will happen to Tom Thibodeau's job before the first game of the 2015/2016 NBA offseason?
Most Likely Answer
Fired by the Bulls
100.00% chance
Fired by the Bulls
100.00% chance
Resigns his position with the Bulls
0.00% chance
Traded by the Bulls
0.00% chance
None of the above
0.00% chance

completed

completed
Will David Petraeus be indicted and/or convicted of any felony charge?
Most Likely Answer
Plea bargain reached prior to indictment
100.00% chance
Indicted, acquitted of all charges
0.00% chance
Indicted, all charges dropped
0.00% chance
Indicted, convicted of any charge
0.00% chance
Indicted, plea bargain reached
0.00% chance
Not indicted before 2017
0.00% chance
Plea bargain reached prior to indictment
100.00% chance

completed